邢唷> 241欹_ h bjbj 4bbhLL SUUUUUU$LByySSP櫑/愌 ?0TyyL l: Modern Econometric methodology and its Development (Ping Zong)AbstractToday econometrics has been widespread applied in empirical study for economic problems. Understanding of econometric methodology is a crucial departure for econometrics. This presentation provided a brief review of modern econometric methodology and its development since 1930s. The core of the review was to show how modern statistical methods, in particular, the modern concept of statistical 慹rror and 憄robability in econometrics, are verified to be scientific, how it provided a scientific method for quantitative analysis of economic phenomena and, how this method more precisely captured the reality. The review also introduced a few new sophistic methods in time series modelling as well as discussed the main issues in current research, aimed at addressing the methodological research in econometric modelling not only is a science but also is an art. Finally, offered my personal thoughts on how econometricians might best be trained in a university, what was we should teach our students and on some issues broadly related to the challenges facing for econometricians in the future. Note:Total time of the presentation: One and half hourSlides of the presentation: EnglishLanguage of speaking: Chinese2 B D H f  - O T u } ~ 疣敘鯉啊暋~_mQm~m_QmQmQmQm~htBCJOJQJ^JaJhtCJOJQJ^JaJ h蘘htBCJOJQJ^JaJ-h蘘htBB*CJOJPJQJ^JaJph# htBCJOJQJaJh蘘htBCJOJQJaJh6@堹CJOJQJRHxaJh.G@堻CJOJQJRHxaJh$@堻CJOJQJRHxaJh納@堻CJOJQJRHxaJh6@堻CJOJQJRHxaJ3   C D g h $a$gd6$a$gdtB$ 勄d3$5$]勄^`a$gd6$勄d3$5$]勄a$gd6$勄d3$5$]勄a$gdL X  2 6 ) - U X f g h 朐朐朐朐玫玫玫莽櫑櫑櫑垊h3, h蘘h.GCJOJQJ^JaJh竢@CJOJQJ^JaJh.GCJOJQJ^JaJhtBCJOJQJ^JaJ h蘘htBCJOJQJ^JaJ-h蘘htBB*CJOJPJQJ^JaJph# 'htBB*CJOJPJQJ^JaJph# 21恏:p3,皞. 捌A!盃"盃#悹$悹%澳澳 惸j 666666666vvvvvvvvv666666>6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666hH6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666662 0@P`p2( 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p8XV~ OJPJQJ_HmH nHsH tHX`X 6Normal1$7$8$H$$CJOJPJQJ_HaJmH sH tH Z@Z 6 Heading 1劵劵@&^劵`劵CJ"OJQJ^JaJ"DA`D Default Paragraph FontRiR 0 Table Normal4 l4a (k ( 0No List PP 6Heading 1 CharCJ"OJPJQJ^JaJ"tH PK!檗[Content_Types].xml瑧薔0E鱄鼉-J湶@%閭菐洽|廊$韶缽UL襎B l,3鳛;鉹得槣B+$G]ミ7O儕V墎$┇最 !)O赹齬虲$駓@摪磔/瓂H*橊劥)戅祶鬟粖譛Db俙}"譹蹕擩讞枻肵^)I`n蘀紛p)杵li筕[]1M<斷絨彥O蠵擊6r=瘔抸纆b營g吜u崘S賓b囑O缽嗕掘肦罝郢櫉反qu 痝嫎Z岸串o~俸lAp發x妏T0+[}`j纂鹺絲A幫儲V2虵蒳朄鰍瀡分5\|夻蕼汰Nвle瞂ds趈cs倭惻7琊嵨f坊賅 肉W琊+唻7爤唁`陲g 葮稠J雷j|唫h(驞-姷咩 dX﹊J曝(鉬x$( :隸;淥! I_蠺到S 1ｗ犍鱧?E?勉?ZB為m渼錟/魁煜?瀪篁誼Y'奎鼀5襣&螊/燑鯪蓩>籊餗丟e鴲艱眢3Vq%'#q域娡$8翚K秊敉)f檞9:牡澹 x}rx墘渨⒇顁:\TZaG*檡8I耲鎎R祈c|X嘔強絀 u3KG駈D1NIB襰鼆 瞘R曦u楘侹>V.EL+M2#'歠嫸i ~橵 l硔u8z篐 *鏄:(W鈽 ~J攘T鴈\O*餿HG絸HY墊}KN吡P*菥甩眿T鴨9/#輻A7聁Z$*c?韖U咤n嗚wN蝴%幓O穒鑸4 =3炯N績)cbJ u4巒(Tn酸 7斒_?異鹠-贈皗U逄鰤Bw襷消╪湐鞘"Z x娬J躗氺p;嫇熟 劐辿/<P;檸,)''K蠶踜5棝騫邛苝N喦8疜軬b耬摨 鸖撡d洯\17 阷鮝>ОSR!枒3晠K4'+r蘻Q TT３I輩琉疘vt]K芻猥渤K#趘5+D眽厙鄜獱O@%\w槉燺鄋N[跮古9K候崢臨q桃g錠炆n R!儁+篣蕁;*&/H時蟃邀 >>\ 宼Υ=.T摹 觖S; Z鄜!ㄠ傏銹9gi槾咰ぺ!# B鰻,欒;匵=芻,I2UW9$l╧嗒捋=Aj挄;顊朅79鍇s*Y擯;浱爺[嘙C撣県f華]o栫{oY=1kyV騁V惺隱5E8鏥k+譁撲蚛8屙計0X4D)!!?*|f縱 u灑《"鴛A谸T_矋帬q矁64)k詁u襐7 顃 '尛%;嬁蟟膦9s9箈懫,熵趲-45x鰀娐8?菢蟙/Y|t &LIL饾J`琛& -G硉/PK! 褠煻'theme/theme/_rels/themeManager.xml.rels剰M 0匃倃oo雍&輬協勪5 6?$Q祉 ,.嘺緳i粭澤c21h:闀q毩m胳嶡RN壻;d癭値o7g慘(M&$R(.1榬'J摐袏T鶂8V"＆A然蠬鱱}狇|$絙{朠除8塯/]As賲(⑵銻#洩L蔥漢倪PK-!檗[Content_Types].xmlPK-!ブх6 0_rels/.relsPK-!kytheme/theme/themeManager.xmlPK-!0軨)theme/theme/theme1.xmlPK-! 褠煻' theme/theme/_rels/themeManager.xml.relsPK] h  h  h 8@饞0(  養 S  ?jjj'o $竢@.GIY辳rtLttB@Kz{3,6納hj@hX@UnknownG.郈x Times New Roman5Symbol3. .郈x Arial7.@Calibri[TimesNewRomanPSMS Mincho9NewAsterA$BCambria Math"q鸚h4Dg4Dg  亖r0ff 3僎HX $P62!xx zongppin pin鄥燆鵒h珣+'遲0 px   zongp Normal.dotmpin pin3Microsoft Office Word@^脅@zN/愌@/愌脹諟.摋+,0 hp|  ONS f  Title  "#$%&'(*+,-./03Root Entry F 酬/愌5Data  1TableWordDocument4SummaryInformation(!DocumentSummaryInformation8)CompObjr  F Microsoft Word 97-2003 Document MSWordDocWord.Document.89瞦