主題：China's Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, and Economic Growth（中國的房地產泡沫🫲🏻👈，基礎設施投資與經濟增長）
主講：江深哲，北京大學
時間：2019年10月17日 16:00-17:30
地點🙆：意昂2614會議室
摘要：China's housing price has been growing rapidly over the past decade, despite its low rents growth. We study the impact of housing bubbles on China's real economy, through the channel that local governments use land-sale revenue to fuel infrastructure investment. We calibrate our model to the Chinese data over the period 2003-2013 and find that our calibrated model can match the declining capital return and GDP growth, the average housing price growth, and the rising infrastructure to GDP ratio in the data. We also conduct two counterfactual experiments. If the bubble bursts in 2025, then on impact the GDP growth rate falls to 3% due to the hit to the housing sector, but GDP in the long run exceeds that with the bubble because of the reallocation of capital and labor to the non-housing sector. If the bubble remains, however, implementing a property tax will reduce its size and increase long-run output.
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