Journal of Economic Surveys (2016) Vol. 30, No. 3，吳建峰💅🏻、Maximilian Auffhammer、孫偉增🧑‍🦲、鄭思齊發表文章THE DECOMPOSITION AND DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FOR 287 CHINESE CITIES IN 1998–2009.

THE DECOMPOSITION AND DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FOR 287 CHINESE CITIES IN 1998–2009

Maximilian Auffhammer

UC Berkeley & National Bureau of Economic Research

Weizeng Sun

Jinan University & Tsinghua University

Jianfeng Wu

Fudan University

Siqi Zheng*

Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University

作者簡介

吳建峰，意昂2官网中國社會主義市場經濟研究中心副教授⏭，研究方向為城市與區域經濟學🧑‍🎄、房地產經濟學➡️。2009年6月獲得新加坡國立大學博士👨‍🦼。發表論文見之於《經濟學（季刊）》💂🏽‍♀️😶、《城市發展研究》、China Economic Review、Journal of Economic Surveys等期刊。出版著作《經濟改革🐽、集聚經濟和不均衡增長：中國產業空間分布的經濟學觀察1980-2010》（北京大學出版社，2014年）。現主持國家自然科學基金項目：基於微觀地理數據的區縣重組的本地化效應研究（項目批準號71573054）。曾主持國家自然科學基金項目🚴🏻：中國產業空間布局演變🤴🏼：事實、規律與政策含義（項目批準號71003026）📦🏃🏻‍♂️。曾參加住房和城鄉建設部國家“十二五”城鎮化發展戰略研究（2009年）。榮獲上海市第十二屆哲學社會科學優秀成果獎二等獎（2014年）。

內容簡介Abstract:

85% of China’s GHG emissions are attributed to urban economic activities, and this share is expected to rise given China’s fast urbanization process. This paper provides estimates of city level industrial CO2 emissions and their growth rates for all 287 Chinese prefecture-level and above cities during the years 1998–2009.We decompose the CO2 emission changes into scale, composition and technique effects. The decomposition results show that these three effects differ significantly across the three tiers of cities in China. The scale effect contributes to rising CO2 emissions, while the technique effect leads to declining CO2 emissions in all cities. The composition effect leads to increasing CO2 emissions in the third-tier cities, while it reduces CO2 emissions in the first and second-tier cities, due to the relocation of energy-intensive industries from the latter to the former type of cities. Based on these decomposition results, we identify the separate channels through which the inflow of FDI and the environmental regulations affect city-level CO2 emissions. The decomposition framework in our paper can help policy makers and scholars to better understand Chinese cities’ trade-offs between economic growth and environmental goals.

Keywords：

Chinese cities; Decomposition; Industrial carbon dioxide

摘要：

城市經濟活動貢獻了中國85%的溫室氣體排放。伴隨著中國快速的城市化進程，這一比重有望繼續上升📃。本文估計了1998-2009年期間中國287個地級及以上城市CO2排放量和其增長率。我們將CO2排放量的變化分解為規模🧎、結構及技術三種效應⚡️。分解的結果顯示✹，三種效應在城市間差別顯著📴。規模效應引起所有城市CO2排放量增加，技術效應引起所有城市CO2排放量減少。由於能源密集型產業從一🥳、二線城市向三線城市轉移，結構效應增加了三線城市CO2排放量🧘🏼‍♂️，而減少了一線和二線城市CO2的排放量🧖🏿‍♂️。基於以上分解的結果，我們驗證了FDI和環保規製影響城市CO2排放量的機製🚴🏼‍♂️。本文的分解框架有助於政策製定者和學者更好地理解中國城市在經濟增長和環保目標間的權衡。

關鍵詞: 中國城市；效應分解🤥；工業二氧化碳

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